It also demonstrates that if you want to run a bike-stealing ring, recruit a bunch of pretty girls. Would almost certainly work with cars, too.

You could have a healing Beer Summit!

I recall the case you're thinking of, Lee, but without recalling the gentleman's name it's hard to google.

So I'll give you this one instead: Black Man Arrested, Fired From Job For Trying To Cash Large Check

Couple held at gunpoint, arrested after buying home

Avram #4: See PNH's #5.

The family statistician once pointed out to me that the difference between profiling and prejudice is the quality of the data you use and the (jargon-word) confidence you have in the results.

Anecdotal data is prejudice.

And the way people are distributed, the patterns that show in such things as crime stats, things such as skin colour just aren't statistically significant. They can be a sign, in some places, that a person is a stranger, and that status has more significance, but the percentage of criminals is still low when you look at the strangers.

Here in the UK, it's just hit the news that crime figures have, generally, dropped. One source is crime levels recorded by the police, and the comment threads are full of people say the police fail to record crimes. They're not liars, but it's anecdotal data from a few hundred people out of some 60 million. And the figures are confirmed by another source, which is a survey of ordinary people. They go out and ask people about their experience of crime.

One of the possible causes of this drop is not the improved performance of the Police. The elimination of lead in petrol has to be part of it. Curiously, the reported increase in fraud may be a confirmation. If we have far fewer brain-damaged school leavers, the other reasons for criminal behaviour may be leading to "smarter" crime, the sort of activity that depends on having some intellectual capacity.

But if Policing policy is being set by people who are some twenty years older, based on their experience, their image of crime will be set by the era of lead-damaged criminals. And the targets are not where they are looking.

Just to be clear, sub-clinical brain damage from environmental lead need not create criminals. But it may affect the types of crime committed. And the age-related differences in the rates of this damage may make it easier for a 20 yo criminal to defraud a 40 yo victim.

It also looks a partial cause of the improvements in the results of school examinations. The politicians, old enough to have suffered effects from lead, are complaining about exams being easier.

Me, I'm in that age group, but I grew up in the rural environment, with much lower levels of lead. And my meetings with politicians are certainly consistent with some of them being exposed to higher levels of lead. But that's anecdotal evidencesnark.

"The Taxonomic Obsession: Profiling as a 4GW Tactical Error" by Myke Cole

On Point: Counterterrorism Journal (January, 2006) Reprinted in Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security International (August, 2006)

Plainclothes detectives hauled Christian off Fifth Avenue and into the local precinct.

There, Christian produced his identification, his debit card from Chase and the receipt with his name on it, the suit states.

"In spite of producing such documentation, Christian was told that his identification was false and that he could not afford to make such an expensive purchase."

"Kayla Phillips, 21, says she was swarmed by four plainclothes cops after using her debit card to buy a $2,500 orange suede Céline bag."